Thursday 12 July 2007

what is wrong with Chinese trade surplus

According to the recent report by China Customs, the trade surplus in June reached a new high standing at 26.91 billion US dollars, eclipsing the previous record of 23.83 billion dollars in October, 2006.
It is not good news for Chinese government who have put in place a raft of measures to control and reduce the growth of trade surplus, including the cut or cancellation of tax rebates on some exported commodities, and the gradual appreciation of Chinese currency.
But such measures seemed to cut little ice, and fail to slow down the growth of trade surplus. In my view, such measures are not the foundamental solution to the issue. Some experts called for a little quicker appreciation of Chinese currency, but it is hard to prove that there is straight correlation between appreciation of currency and ease up of trade surplus. It would be simplistic to think that the appreciation of currency would result straight in reduction of trade surplus. As a Chinese economist said, Reminbi requires stability, which is good not only for Chinese economy but also for the world economy as well.
What about the tax rebates? The Ministry of Finance announced on June 18th that as of July 1st, China would again adjust export tax rebate rates on some commodities. But is this working well? Since 2004, China has adjusted its export tax policy for iron and steel products six consecutive times, but the momentum for trade surplus continues. The tax rebate policy adjustment failed to discourage the Chinese export. The reasons are, among others, Chinese enterprise increasing ability to adapt to the tax rebate adjustment. Besides, while the tax rebate could facilitate the slowdown of the export, but the import would be also consequentially reduced, due to the structure of Chinese export.
As some scholars have argued, the basic reason for continued growth of trade surplus lies with the fact: high deposits but low consumption. Such imbalance between savings and consumption results mostly from the inadequacy of Chinese social welfare system. The domestic imbalance will lead to the imbalance of import and export. This is the truly bottom reason for the Chinese trade surplus.

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